<ps i maintain my prediction that no real war in iraq before next calendar year.> Doing a how sure test on WLD?:).
Are you sure enough to make a big long play, because if this war does get put on indefinite hold the market will explode and run because "The Spin" is the only thing wrong with the economy is worry over Iraq, and i believe many will buy into this spin.
There is a fortune to made by the speculators that take that , what i consider, very high risk bet.(that is before a war commences for as jeff#1 points out we could well rally on the war starting)
I have swung back from Neutral to it is will happen since i last posted:)
Interesting scuttlebutt that U.S. is centering it's strategy on persuading Baghdad Iraqis to simply stay indoors and not resist when the U.S. troops arrive in Baghdad.Also advising all who surrender will find it to their benefit.
Journalist saying that Iraqi citizens off record are saying their greatest fear is the chaos that would be following the fall of Saddam as many factions have deadly vendettas amongst each other and the life of many iraqis will go from not good to very bad.
And they think U.S. can't handle it.(and i see little reason to think they can)
Basically Saddam has been running a "if you keep your mouth shut and smile at the name of Saddam" you will have no problem, and the vast majority, in order to survive have played that game.
U.S. has shifted to a strategy of getting alliances from Italy/Spain/Australia and ex-Soviet countries in the eastern Bloc.
One thing the world will learn very fast, if Al Queda is still in the game, because if they are you know they will move following a commencement of war.
All this is coming, a swirling cloud, unknown in content; is it filled with razor blades or just, instead, just balls of cotton?
The word is that Bush in his the State of the Union speech has two centers, one to give a vigorous speech to persuade America to "say yes to war" and on the otherhand convince that the stimulus plan is going to revive the economy.(i saw the warm up for this speech as he stood before fake "Made in USA" cardboard crates).
If he comes forth with a gung-ho Hawk speech as expected there is no way he can back off without a major
"loss of face"(and we know that is a can't have for a politician). Max |
