Patron -- you're thinking we rally into war? Or that we rally if war is postponed? or we rally when war is done? or... hey, man... what the heck are you thinking??? <g>
I think we rally when the shooting starts (I say "when" not "if", because I'm convinced that da Fuhrer and Field Marshall von Rumsfeld are committed to invade regardless of what the UN says, all on the basis of US domestic security).
I think the troops are being massed for attack even as we speak. The "go" will be given no later than next Tuesday, and the air war will commence next week. I think the Russian sources quoted earlier this week were spot on, that they got the heads-up a week or two ago, so as to avoid them mistaking our missle launches as an attack on the Kremlin or somesuch. I think the ground war will start fairly soon, probably within 4 weeks of the onset of hostilities, given concerns about fighting in the summer voiced by US aurthorities.
The earliest phases of the ground war will go very well, possibly with only token opposition (provided we aren't hit by a chemical attack). If Saddam has any sense at all, he won't try to take us on in a tank battle with absolutely no air cover. It was stupid last time, and it would be completely idiotic this time. I think the markets rally ferociously at this point, as traders get nostalgic for 1991. The one exception is if Saddam launches a chemical attack; I'd put the odds at a chemical attack by Iraq at about 30%, possibly during the early part of the ground war when our troops are in the most sparsely populated terrain, ie, moving out of Turkey or Kuwait. If this happens, and there are significant US casualties (> 500 dead/wounded), the Dow drops a thousand, the 'Dung drops 150 and the POG goes up 80-100 bucks in a day.
Once we reach Baghdad, we will have an ugly and viscious guerilla war there for at least several weeks, with significant casualties on both sides (heavier on the Iraqi side, of course). I think the markets will slide far and fast during this phase, which should start no later than the 2nd or 3rd week of March. Saddam will attempt to use the tactics of Aidid in Mogadishu, using civillians as a shield and attempting to close with the Americans to thwart us from deploying our much more effective and accurate firepower, in order to delay our advance, and maximize both enemy and civilian casualties, the better to invoke the sympathy of p*ssies like the French. Once we subdue them, the subsequent occupation will be a chaotic mess (but of couse we will control the oil fields, which very well may be unusable due to Saddam blowing up the wells, or lighting a few dirty nukes in the vicinity. Nonetheless, once we have Saddam's head on a stick, we will party (and rally) like it's 1999....maybe for months.
Of course, the alternative will be that Saddam throws the "chicken switch" and bails out into exile to drink daiquiris with Osama in Yemen the rest of his life. I put the odds of this at 35 to 1 at this point. If that happens we rally 1000 points in the Dow and 150 in the Dung overnight, setting up the MOASSO (Mother of all short-selling opportunities)....
BWTFDIK?
Peacefully yours,
Patron |
