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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: tradermike_1999 who started this subject1/23/2003 11:32:14 PM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Comments on Dow stocks not working -

There are 2 Dow stocks not mentioned -Merck & Johnson & Johnson. Both have heavy overseas sales and benefit from a falling dollar. JNJ just posted a 30% earnings increase, and that's without significant revenue from their drug - coated stent, which will have a significant impact later this year.

From TheStreet.com -

Lightweights Give the Dow a Headache

By James J. Cramer
01/23/2003 03:41 PM EST
Click here for more stories by James J. Cramer

Suddenly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has a bunch of problems that could give the benchmark some real headaches. They all seemed to surface at once. Look at this litany:

1. Two telecom players, AT&T (T:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) and SBC (SBC:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), have stumbled and stumbled badly. AT&T may not even make it; that's how bad things are. SBC's doing worse, arguably, than BellSouth (BLS:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis). It has the dog of a business that is Cingular and a pressured wireline business.


2. Boeing (BA:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): If you think General Dynamics (GD:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) has problems with its civil aerospace business, wait until you hear from Boeing.

3. Eastman Kodak (EK:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): I like this company, but it just botched its quarter more than I thought. The dividend is safe, but momentum is stalling as the consumer pulls in its horns.

4. Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): Big labor costs are spiking badly, not a good sign.

5. McDonald's (MCD:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): What else can go wrong?

6. Home Depot (HD:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): See McDonald's above.

All of these problems have come out since the year began. You can add them to the hangover from 2002: the regulatory morass from J.P. Morgan (JPM:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) and Citigroup (C:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), the managerial morass at Disney (DIS:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), the raw-cost morass at DuPont (DD:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), the asbestos morass -- soon to be resolved -- at Honeywell (HON:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), the continuing aluminum morass at Alcoa (AA:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), and the lack-of-momentum morass at General Electric (GE:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis).

When you have to look to American Express (AXP:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), Coca-Cola (KO:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), IBM (IBM:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), Procter & Gamble (PG:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), 3M (MMM:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), Philip Morris (MO:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), United Technologies (UTX:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) and Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) for all of the growth to get the index to rally, it's a tall order.

But some of these Dow stocks simply aren't carrying their weight.

And the problems aren't going away anytime soon
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