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Pastimes : A Jackass, his PAL(indrome), and GOLD

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To: mishedlo who wrote (362)1/24/2003 10:36:06 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 1210
 
a big surprise is coming soon with higher longbond yield
a consequence most definitely from the falling dollar

here is the ultimate irony
it points out why the Fed Monetization effort is futile
if the longbond yield remains low (in 4% range), then we are likely to see nothing to stop the dollar from falling further
heck, the 3-month yield is falling now, at 1.17% this morning
the shortend (cash Trez) and the longend (investment) both fortify the USDollar
take away the ability for the market to price in higher long yields, and you remove the very mechanism for stabilizing the dollar at a lower valuation
so, the dollar will descend without encumbrance

the Fed Incomps might think they can control all the levers
my personal take is that they cannot control all, therefore
they cannot control any


without allowing the interconnected longbond and dollar to be free, something has to give
and my guess is that what gives will be both the dollar and gold

/ jim
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