Hello Maurice, <<Both gold and 10 x QCOM at $370>> THank you for that update. A piece of happy news. I wrote the following I was sitting as comfotably as I could in a jet-propelled aluminium tube hurtling through thin air at great speed.
QUOTE
I am not going to fire-up my lap-top and pretend to work. I never ever do. I am typing this post on a Blackberry-type keyboard attached to my iPaq, and I am having fun, at the beginning of vacation.
I can spend the hurtling time thinking about tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow, and if I have time left, the day after that; or I can continue reading The Sigma Protocol by Robert Ludlum, unfinished from the last vacation during October of 2002.
I choose to put on my designated booties, don my assigned eye-shades, and take a nap. I always have trouble staying awake while flying.
In order to have a more productive nap, I define a question for REM-phase solution search:
How can I obtain a 10% passive gain on net worth in 2003 ?
The immediate and partial solution is, "keep the current 4.2% YTD gain intact, and get another 5.8%".
Another incomplete answer is, "change my base-currency from HKD/USD to Brazilian Real, or whatever those perpetually happy folks are calling their money this year".
The third possible approach is to place minding-bendingly huge wager on ... No, that would be gambling, and I try not to commit that sin too often, certainly not in any amount close to mind-deforming quantity of mullah, or just old fashioned cash.
... And so I hope to generate the complete guess while I am in REM-nap and seemingly quiescent stasis.
[EDIT: After nap and limbering up by doing the Trinidad Taichi] I have inkling of a thought, "In what base currency of account is it tough to get a 5.8% return for what remains of 2003?"
Perhaps in order of possible difficulty, each for some good believable reasons, that would be:
(a) Gold, one money that rules over all cash;
(b) Swiss Franc, next best thing to gold; and going rapidly down hill …
(c) RenMingBi, or People's Yuan;
(d) Euro, experimental bread;
(e) Kiwi, small but strong scratch;
(f) Aussie, Loonie, and the SAfrican Rand, all resource-backed units of exchange; and finally
(g) USD, most popular of fiats.
Jay, you may be on to something better than an old tire while scuba diving.
I mean, if it is toughest to get a 5.8% gain denominated in any particular currency, all matters being equal, doesn't that also mean that same currency is most likely to appreciate against the stuff it can buy, namely other currencies, financial derivatives of real-world assets, and services?
Yes, most assuredly, but all matters are not equal, some having more atomic particles and others have different toxic properties and spin characteristics.
The Swiss Franc (CHF), next best thing to gold, is not the same thing as gold, and at one time paid a nominal interest rate of less than zero to discourage financial refugees and confiscate their goodies, much as the Swiss once did ... Oh, I will not pick at that wound. There is an additional problem that the items easily purchasable with CHF are Swiss stocks of companies and watches, and both are high priced already.
The RenMingBi (RMB), or the People's Yuan, is not easily convertible into other units of exchange, although it has been getting easier to do so. The assets and financial derivatives of assets that can be purchased with RMB are (a) priced high, and/or (b) of 'if-ish' and uneven quality, like the US variety.
The Euro, the experimental bread, is experimental, and, DJ's assurances not withstanding, is also fragile in an era of high economic and thus intense financial stress. Should any of the too many members of the happy Union grumble about the obligations of the state of bliss, pushed by its respective democratic mob, then it is game over as Central Banks and speculators move towards the exits.
The Kiwi, the small but strong scratch, is small, possibly too small, easily capsized in a bathtub with a nuclear powered aircraft carrier sailing through.
The Aussie, Loonie, and the SAfrican Rand, all resource-backed units of exchange, while made of possibly sterner stuff than the kiwi, and is structurally more unified than the Euro, is ultimately governed by weak socialist minds chosen by loud democratic mobs.
The USD, the most popular of fiats, is popular, getting less so, and thus, at some point, potentially can possibly fall perhaps quite a long distance from great but unknowable height while loaded down with great messy debt-ly mass.
The financial derivatives that we can buy with USD are richly price relative to their discounted free-cash and thus distributable flow.
The real estate stuff in USD-space is high priced, relative to sustainable supportable earnings capacity, relative to systemically high levels of obligations and therefore potential default rate.
The services that we can buy in USD-central are already high and getting higher, dictated to go higher still, making the USD promise of tomorrow not worth as today, as preferred by CB’s new favorite Fed governor, Bernanke.
The stuff that is bought with USD and is dropping in price (cars, gadgets) either is not healthy for USD population (gadgets) or is fattening in case of long fall from great height (zero % financed import cars and loss making domestic cars) while loaded down with messy debt-ly mass.
So, by elimination, we are left with gold, the one true money that rules over all cash, available for a bit more than its extraction cost.
There are problems with gold as well, namely, its small float, rumored manipulation, present unpopularity, and always troublesome logistics.
There are opportunities with the ancient Aztec coin as well, perhaps its lack of a 'speed' governor, increasing and 'chromo-lattice' embedded popularity, potential IDotNet enabled ESlashCom enhanced logistics, viral market expanding PR, and small float, for the speculating gamblers .... Oops, I mean the investors.
Maurice, what is the natural trade? The obvious exchange? The evident bargain?
Yes, I remember, for you, QCOM, a patented phragment-photon based pixel currency governed by non-elected corporate clones you choose to trust, backed by a company with other and more pressingly important obligations, and which chose to pay you not a Real's worth of purchasing power.
I will now take another nap and maybe resolve the all-important question of 'why'.
Awake once more, picking at a mango between clicks of keypunch.
As money, gold is better than QCOM. It has been around longer, generally keeping its purchasing power, has more brand recognition and a solid multi-generation and trans-geography acceptance.
As investment, a company that digs for money, eh ... metals and distributes its bounties on regular basis, such as Harmony Gold (HMY) ... quote.bloomberg.com
Option
pcquote.com
... or Impala Platinum (IMPAY) quote.bloomberg.com
and quote.bloomberg.com
... is better than QCOM.
As speculative wager on pervasive technology and viral global culture, a company that has small float and big patented potential future, such as Lumacom (LUM.AX) ...
Subject 53628
uk.finance.yahoo.com
... beats QCOM.
As reform play, a solidly operated company with difficult to extract and therefore to steal asset in an icky country rule by a soon-to-be-dead emperor, such as, oh ... perhaps ZIM (ZIM.AX) ...
Subject 53084
baby.boom.com.hk
uk.finance.yahoo.com
... of Mugabe-land, bests QCOM.
As recovery play on doom-kaboom, a beaten down stock with claim on solid assets located in pulverized 3D-space, such as CRESUD SA (CRESY) ...
quote.bloomberg.com
... the farmland company located in Argentina, will probably out-distance QCOM.
As a bet on relief rally post WAT-WOT-What-Not action, a ultra-high divident paying stock supported financially by the US and politically by UK, and located in terror-central Pakistan, such as Hub Power (HUPOF) ...
finance.yahoo.com
... is perhaps best, as compared to Iraq-bound ExxonMobil and BP, and certainly non-seqitor QCOM.
You can astutely adjust the allocation percentage of a mix of the above unpopular seven (gold, HMY, IMPAY, LUM.AX, ZIM.AX, CRESUD, and HUPOF) Faith-of-Aztec, Axis-of-Gloom, Affiliation-of-Hydrogen, Pivot-of-Gain, Circularity-of-Evil, Tapestry-of-Loss, and Matrix-of-Doom ingredients and precisely determine the right balance for your own situation of capital preservation, dividend income, capital gain, economic volatility, and political opportunity for explosive event-triggered gain.
You can concurrently dabble in gold futures and HMY options and leverage up debt to equity and/or further enhance current income as the latest news inspires you.
Maurice, one of the nine secrets to long happy life is to constantly learn new ways, exercise varied brain paths, try new roads, and experiment with different approaches.
Another of the nine secrets is to correctly manage one's financial affairs, resulting in surer gains all along the temporal axis, not just at the end of space and termination of time.
UNQUOTE
Chugs, Jay |
