Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26575)	1/25/2003 10:47:29 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) of 36161

Slider we both agree on taking profits, you're just more aggressive than I in doing so. I've already rotated several times within this cycle and all of my current positions were started before this recent run, but after the June meltdown. Where we disagree is whether or not this is a double top forming. I disagree (at least so far) as I've laid out in these posts. Message 18464832 Also, this is an excellent read on why this war may be different than the '91 war. He does note that we could get a sharp pullback in gold due to the war, but it'll be Dollar related (which I tend to agree with). Again, I'm going to wait and see how the Dollar performs near term and at the start of any hostilities. gold-eagle.com I think many share your view that the war will be quick and easy. That's part of the reason I don't agree with it. I have some mental stops in place and if we don't rally over HUI 155 next week I'll likely be taking more off the table. The 6 day brutal pullback in the HUI that you keep referring to occurred after the HUI ran from 60 to 150 pretty much uninterrupted. Now, we've based for well over 6 months and we've run 25+ from the breakout of HUI 125 (of course we may disagree on where this run started from). I think we could very well get another pullback on the order of the previous pullback, but I think it'll come from higher levels. Obviously stock selection here is key. I wouldn't touch GG, GLG or a few of the other momentum favorites here. But look at stocks like BGO for instance. Last time it ran from .5 to almost $2. Of course the pullback is going to be brutal. This time it's spent over 6 months basing around $1 and now almost 2 months basing around 1.30. Is it giving back 50% this time to .65 cents? I don't think so. Currently in KGC (1.65), HL (4.4), and WHT (.90). Have reduced WHT somewhat of late due to the uncertainties surrounding the funding of their acquisition. Had traded my PAAS for WHT at 8 to .9 cents respectively. I like BGO on a breakout of 1.5. I still think KGC gets a premium once the merger is complete vs a discount to it's large cap peers currently.

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