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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 342.47

+1.6%

Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: michael97123 who wrote (8200)	1/25/2003 12:00:29 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) of 95737

Michael, I agree that a fairly quick and positive resolution to Iraq and the resulting drop in oil will rally the market. The Fed is certainly keeping plenty of liquidity in the system. I am not sure how sustainable the rally will be. Business in general still has significant overcapacity putting a brake on capital spending. The conditions for a strong recovery don't seem to be in place. When a recovery starts there is usually pent up demand to fuel it. Problem is two of the major drivers (autos and housing) did not fall off. Therefore there can't be a significant pickup in either area. In fact I am concerned that consumer spending on autos and housing may slow down tipping the economy into the real recession. I think that the "double dip" scenario may still unfold. As far as timing of 950 on the NAS I think that Zeev is leaning towards mid year or later. Here is his "roadmap": investorshub.com

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