I think it's a matter of risk/reward at this point. Holding gold shares at resistance presents, IMO, a high risk, low reward proposition. The lack of strength in the HUI on Friday was worrisome to me. On 1/16 the HUI had a 7 point range, with a close near the high, while the Dow had a small move down, and the dollar down 68 cents or so. Friday the dollar moved down more than 1/16, the Dow imploded 200+ points, and the HUI moved a mere 4 points. This is in the face of heaps of fear and loathing in the world, the sky is falling...spin at it's best. The HUI should have taken out 155 with ease IMO, instead it retreated into the close. What takes the strength out of a move towards resistance?..shorting, selling, and traders waiting for a breakout.
To each his own, but I'm playing this safe. I'm not saying the HUI doesn't have more upside, just it looks close enough to done that I will trade out the last of my gold next week in my IRA...unless we breakout, then I will re-evaluate.. The $CRX, XLA, $DFX, and the $OSX all contradicted the HUI move on Friday...and the weekly charts are down...why?. The dollar (no flames please), looks ready to bounce. Too many warning signals for me to ignore.
Bottom line...let's see the breakout...and BTW..HL looks done for awhile per my analysis...When I see a potential top in gold, which the 1/6 stick represented to me (155 should have gone that day IMO, the dollar was down second day in row)....I start looking for where to put my money other than gold, instead of watching every tick in hope of a breakout. You'll know when 155 is taken out, in the interim, I'm looking around for where I'm going with my cash if the HUI fails again..I know where I'm going...and the key is to have the cash available for any scenario...breakout or breakdown...good luck all...
Regards,
Bert |
