China. Yes, agreed economic war against US. The internal revolution you address has to be exactly about freeing themselves of the tyrants in power, and be more Laissez Faire.
Yes, agreed on corruption and business trust... the thing that may impair all these needed changes will be the arrogance by their leaders in thinking they can do it without opening to the "foreigners". Can they do it? --Not sure, but they may have a shot at it, and the ones at the top are not going to give up power laying down.
Agrarian state. Do they really need the west? Not sure, technology can accomplish a lot and copyright laws do not seem to have much impact there, hence, they could copy things and develop the entire country on their own, (or at least so they believe they can do).
The above, plus the Dinar and what I meant about population is what I believe they are thinking they can get away with.
i.e. China has a big enough market of their own. The Muslim world (growing population) could successfully establish their goals of becoming a world of traders (enough support for the Dinar) therefore, shielding themselves against the US Dollar, particularly if it becomes a weak USD, then others would look to support for the Dinar.
If China successfully establishes a commercial relationship with many Muslim countries... it could give them more strength.
I think, we need to "think outside the US standards” in order to figure out their strategies. They (China and the Muslim world) view us as the enemy, hence whatever differences they may have, (and they have them), may be ignored if they form a sort of "alliance" against the US. This is where I believe that Iraq may be a screen for the real goings on.
I also believe that there are some differences between the Muslims of the ME and those of Indonesia and other countries, but I am not sure what these are, since I am not a "Muslim world expert".
I am the first to say that population growth is a hindrance rather than a benefit, however this is said measured by Western living standards. However, when you turn the viewing point and do so from a third world perspective, this could change. Still, it remains to be seen if the sheer numbers alone can make a difference, they need to be educated and have purchasing power.
This is where the US could become essential and therefore, NOT lose the economic war. Because the world, in order to succeed in a peaceful way, NEEDS US ideology. The concept of true Laissez Faire, of true democracy and above all, TRUST.
However, how can the US (or the West at large) serve as example, if our own economy is so screwed up and most importantly, how can we demand that the Chinese be honest and clean when our own corporations and government is embroiled in a lack of trust debacle...?
How can we say to the Chinese to clean up their corruption, when our own system is so screwed up?
As far as corruption goes, the US is an undergraduate, while the Chinese and others have PhD's on the subject...
The economic war is for the USA to lose, more than the Chinese (and/or the Muslim world) to win. As far as the Europeans go, I think the only ones that see what's going in are the Brits; the French are still thinking Napoleon will reappear any minute now, (better, they believe that politics should be handled like a love affair i.e. trust no one, including yourself -gg), and frankly the Germans are still too busy integrating the two Germanies into one, the Italians... well, they do make excellent wine and the Spaniards better chorizo -g
All these factors, (since you cannot give any single one the necessary strength), combined together is what is giving the Dinar, (or rather GOLD) its surprisingly new strength. After all, Ayn Rand may succeed in the end... I believe the jury is still out, but the environment has dramatically changed to the favor of GOLD.
At this point, Gold has gained extraordinary strength that I do not think it will disappear soon. Indeed as it is mentioned in some circles, the bull market is just beginning. Everything seems to be indicating that way, and fundamentals also seem to be pointing that way, but I am no expert. I think the catalyst will be if a few countries begin to shy away from US Dollar denominated assets, this war, certainly will help this cause; so I wonder, what is really at stake that the US Chiefs are so willingly and eagerly risking all this... or... are they so foolish, or egomaniacs not to see the risk? Less and less, I believe that Iraq is about terrorism. |
