THE FRONT OFFICE GORILLA GAME: Q4, 2002 -- PART 2
The Gorilla Game
At the time of my Q3 report, the Gorilla Game's numbers
were simply awful, showing big-time underperformance
compared to both indexes. (Don't look up that post. The
numbers were so bad that it'll hurt to see them again.)
Since then, the S&P 500 and the Naz have moved down 2% and
up 3%, respectively. The Gorilla Game has advanced 20%. As
a result, though the comparisons with the indexes haven't
yet returned to the market-stomping days of two years ago,
they are definitely much easier to live with today. Notice
that since the inception of the Game nearly five years ago,
its performance and the performance of the indexes are
amazingly similar.
Year- History
to-Date History Annualized
Gorilla Game 12.63% -27.32% -6.60%
Nasdaq -15.14% -25.64% -6.14%
S&P 500 -2.09% -22.43% -5.29%
The numbers for Siebel Systems as of the close of market, January 25, 2003:
Change
5/25/98 5/1/99 4/11/00 Current From First
Buy Price Buy Price Buy Price Price Purchase
SEBL $5.75 $9.61 $52.47 $8.35 45.22%
The Final Tally
Stocks $7,164.30
Cash 104.08
Total $7,268.38
Details about the Game
The Front Office Gorilla Game (not a real-money portfolio) was begun with $10,000 and four stocks in equal dollar
amounts on May 25, 1998. Using the rules of the Game, I gradually eliminated all gorilla candidates until only the
stock of the Gorilla (Siebel) remained as it does today.
Commissions are based on $8 per trade. The value of earnings on invested cash is not calculated. Those earnings
would have been so insignificant that no meaningful lesson could have been learned from them.
And last, the most important stuff ...
CAVEAT: I own shares of Siebel Systems. In the past I have owned long and short positions of Siebel's competitors
(including some that were at one time "in the Game") and reserve the right to do so in the future. Most important,
please, please don't make any investment decisions based on anything coming from my keyboard. Do your own homework!
--Mike Buckley |
