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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: energyplay who wrote (17436)	1/26/2003 8:45:47 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) of 206200

EOG & DVN equity positions were margin positions for me. I think the probability of war in Iraq has increased to 100% over the last few weeks. With Powell laying out reality to the peacenicks in Davos, I see the most massive attack in the history of mankind being unleashed within the next few weeks. Today the market is pricing in that we can prevent the planned sabotage of the oil infrastructure during the air campaign and the initial ground campaign and that oil will be flowing at Iraq's maximum within months. I think the first smoking oil well that appears on the 10 PM news will be followed by a reality check in energy equity stocks the next morning. futuresource.com So against the back drop of weak equities in front of the Iraq invasion, we have the NA NG play. I think the E&P's are revealing a poor case for investors with their lack of prospects statements, complaints about the high costs to deliver product and inability to increase the quantity of the products they sell. I expect the present wishful assumptions being put out by the media that storage will still end over 1,000 bcf will be modified substantially once the first forecast in February shows that the remainder of the heating season is not going to be one of record breaking warmth. I expect the market assumes we enter February 1 with about 1575 bcf in storage. It appears the market is thinking we will use less than 600 bcf during the remaining 10 weeks, when production in the USA is expected be ~200 bcf less during this period than last years period. My guess is with the worst weather we use the 700+ bcf more (500bcf years 1997 & 1999 + 200 production difference). I dont expect the worst weather scenario and I expect to see 1,000 bcf of difference to the two low years. So we end around 700 bcf with some more fuel switching. Time to make my post to Oilviews.

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