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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 680.27

-0.5%

Dec 1 4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (83626)	1/26/2003 10:38:49 AM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Bobby, what is your put/call 21 day / 200 day chart telling you now? I didn't fully understand how you are interpreting the chart from your previous post here. Some interesting things going on in the market now. Some indicators are saying we are a long way from the bottom of this bear move. For instance, the NYSE new highs/new lows has only just turned down and in recent past needs to get to -500 on the chart below to indicate we are near a bottom: stockcharts.com[e,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]&listNum=1 On the other hand, the NYSE tick on Friday showed steady selling as the tick stayed below zero for much of the day and the 4 hour moving average has moved below zero: stockcharts.com[e,a]jaclyyay[d20][pb240][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G My timing model is still at 25% short (wish it was a higher percentage). Whereas for most of this decline, my indicators haven't been affected much by the down days, Friday's decline did have a significant impact. Makes me wonder if we are about to see a sharper decline going forward. The only event I can imagine that could cause that would be if the Iraq attack is going to start much sooner than the March date that has been discussed recently. Next week's market action will be interesting and perhaps shed some light on the situation. Tom

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