Re Iraqi Oil Infrastructure Sabotage -- My Guess
<<"...When you say, "Quick & relatively bloodless."
What time frame do you have in mind? Days? Weeks?"
...
Hi Fix, I want to reiterate that my opinion is just my best guess as to what seems most likely. Que, Russ, & others see the probabilities differently. I'm willing to bet on my opinion, but I would by no means say I'm certain what will happen.
I'm often wrong.
That said, I think the way to win GW2 is with speed & overwhelming force. I do not think there will be a long period of real conflict. Weeks at most, including the opening air strikes; perhaps just days. Control will be clearly gained in very short order (My use of "relatively bloodless" refers to American & allied troops, of course.) Urban areas can be isolated & need not be fought thru(perhaps left besieged but not a threat, to be dealt with later.)
--- But the important questions wrt Iraqi oil are "Will the oil infrastructure be sabotaged by Iraqis?" & "When will we know the extent of any such sabotage? How long will this threat hang over the market?"
-----My opinion, & the point of my previous post, is that any such damage will be minor at most. I think people almost always act in their own self-interest. I.e.-- The Iraqi Army Major in charge of troops guarding an oil facility who is now vowing to destroy it if America attacks is simply posturing as he must. Saddam still has the power & the Major says what Saddam wants him to say. (What an idiot he would be to say now "Well, I don't think we should blow up these facilities. Iraq will need them when Saddam is rat chow." ) When the situation has changed or is in flux; when Saddam is fallen or is on the way down, the Major will see that it is in his best interest & Iraq's best interest to protect rather than destroy the facility. In fact, he sees that now & is planning accordingly. He is looking to the future & doesn't want to explain to the new powers in Bagdad how he let the oil facilities he had control of be destroyed by Saddam loyalists.
---Ask yourself "If I were a mid-level Iraqi Army Officer or gvmt official, would I want to position myself as a die-hard Saddam backer in a post GW2 Iraq?" Imo you'd have to have a poor grasp of reality to make that choice. Sure, there will be some who want to self-destruct with Saddam, but they will be countered & largely neutralized by the much larger number who want to live & prosper with their families in post-Saddam Iraq.
--- I think we will know within days of ground assault that the oil facilities will not be destroyed & the markets will react accordingly.
jmvho, of course
regards,
diana |
