Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: marek_wojna who wrote (27922)	1/26/2003 7:45:07 PM
From: larscot	Read Replies (1) of 74559

I'm in agreement with you - Subject 50782 Not a good indicator of National health. Hard to see how we'll see any growth with the daily numbers getting turned loose. These are people being removed from any economic contributions. IMHO, a percentage of these people will become greater loads on lenders and will end up being defaults and write-offs. Companies seeing increasing growth in the next 1-2 Qtrs would hold people on the payroll and accept the short-term debt, balancing off agains the cost of re-tooling and retraining. This ain't the case.... Rising unemployment, continued layoffs, gluts in inventories, reduced demand, falling dollar (repeat cycle, rinse) = depression. IMHO 03 will be baaad. Better hope major banks can pull a rabbit out of the hat, or we'll see them start taking it in the shorts too - got my eyes on JPM, a derivative nightmare just waiting for a gust of wind to bring it down. Countless others, but that ones the biggest by far. Regards, Larry

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