OOH! OOH! Short them, short them. I shorted this sucker at 138+, I was on drug back then. Mr AG got me kill, he woke up all the bulls from HELL and the bulls from DELL. I shorted this baby again at 172 last friday. If it jumps 10 more points I'll do it again.
Dell was lucky, CPQ, IBM, HP did not take them seriously, but now they are on the run , the margin for the PC are getting smaller, DELL has no where to go but cross the road to go to server market but not neccessary using the direct-channel crap, you will see!
Don't get me wrong I like DELL, it is a good company but I also like to short DELL for its over-value stock.
Since most of people use TA for pro and con, let me use car sale model for example:
Suppose in Steven Greek BLVD there are many car dealers A, B, C..... they are spending a lot of money build up the show room and hire many salemen to sell car. Over the years there is Mr DELL who does not have any show room, no salemen all he has is a bunch of cashiers and warehouse full of cars. Now Mr DELL said if you like to test drive Toyota 4 runner, you go to Mr A, B, C ..dealers but when you are done with it come to my warehouse, it is 10% cheaper. Well Mr DELL will have a lot of customers and a good profit margin too. This is going on for years, now DELL is about to pissed dealer A,B, C...what can they do to stop DELL?, they can not burn its ware house down. What they can do is to team up and say to the customers, if you come to test drive the car at my lot, if you like it you don't have to go to Mr DELL, I can beat his price, I too have a big warehouse on the back of the show room They will sacrifice their margin just to stop DELL,
The reason that CPQ, IBM, HP wat to emulate DELL, not just because of its fancy crap direct-channel. they just want to stop DELL period. To stop dell they have to surround its warehouse, very soon DELL can't sell no more car, it has to build the show room , parking lot and hire some salemen too, here you go!
Sooner or Later DELL will have to cross the road in order to survive, you can hear for yourself the anouncement on MONDAY for their servers, I think DELL will not market them entirely on the Direct-channel.
Bulls you have your opionion, this is mine. OK good night.
Good luck to all. |
