Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Moominoid who wrote (27989)	1/27/2003 10:17:12 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (2) of 74559

>>Seems to me you just want to explain everything by only one variable.<< I don't think so. I rely on Mundell-Fleming mostly, which is multi-variable. >>you also want certainty<< When it comes to the Great Depression of the 1930's, I am satisfied that I understand it very well. Unfortunately, I can't explain it all in a sentence or two. There are several parallel chains of events which have to be understood simultaneously. I've read somewhere in the range of 50 books and hundreds of scholarly papers. At this point, I even understand who understands it. Bernanke is pretty good at it, but nobody that I've read ties all the parallel events together, and I have no idea whether it's possible to do so. The only way I can think of to do it is to make an enormous time line that would have to be a wall chart. Even that won't really do, though. Not that different from understanding what's going on right now. If you pay close attention, you can understand the present very well. You have to read a lot, though. What I can't do is predict the future, but then, I never said that I could.

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