Bobby, what is your put/call 21 day / 200 day chart telling you now? I didn't fully understand how you are interpreting the chart from your previous post here.<<<
Tom, i use larry mcmillan's interpretation of the p/c averages in general, he doesn't look at absolute levels as buy and sell signals, he looks more at turning points and trends (and he uses breadth and support resistance indicators in conjunction)
the 200 dma is flattening which could be interpreted either that the market is basing or consolidating for another leg of pessimism, with the major averages taking out support of the trading range that started in october, it appears likely that a new downtrend is emerging from the consolidation of the averages from the july low.
The short term moving averages (10 - 21) are no where near levels of pessimism that have marked recent bottoms, today was the first day that option players exhibited any real dramatic pessimism with a slightly above 1 reading, the vix spiked on friday, rydexers are bearish as hell, but levels of fear and pessimism could rise as they have in the past during this bear market, and could set off my media indicator which is an above the fold story about the stock market slide in the Times (ny or la), a bear on the cover of a weekly or monthly news magazine, or the opening story on either the morning or evening network news shows about the market slide.
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dd][pa.7!b13][vc60][iUb14]&pref=G
My timing model is still at 25% short (wish it was a higher percentage). <<<<
that's better than me, i got short at the end of november, but this last top fooled me, i did take profits on my longs from early jan (and your decision to go 25% short and the rising wedge pattern in nasdaq on 60min chart were helpers there), but i did not go short and didn't feel comfortable chasing it after the gap down after the msft news.
So i'm pissing in the wind with some gold stocks that are going no-where while gold is going to the moon -g- |
