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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (53526)	1/27/2003 11:40:18 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (2) of 54805

Jurgis, what we have is kind of like a corporate baby boom, with a disproportionately large number of juvenile startup companies all about the same age. So I am not sure we need large amount of startups in the next couple years, since the wave of previous ones have not yet matured, grown and consolidated enough. Just like the baby boom happening around us, this doesn't mean that there won't be any more births 'cause there are enough people born already. Instead it suggests certain demographic pressures will be exerted on the generation and on its predecessors and successors. Furthermore, it is not obvious that there are many great and profitable ideas left after gigantic "finance any idea that moves" typhoon. We did not go through a period of tremendous enlightenment, in which an unusually large number of good business ideas were developed and brought to fruition. No. We went through a period where an unusually large number of mediocre (or worse) business ideas attracted capital. So just because there are a bunch of mediocre teams sitting on capital doesn't mean that everyone else should give up and go away. Just because every idea that could fit on five charts got funded three years ago doesn't mean that every good idea's already taken. Many good ideas are being incubated at the moment in an incredibly hostile environment. Adversity is a tremendous training ground. As far as: So I am not sure that the investments in early stage companies be made at this time with high "reward" expectation. You and much of the main stream investment community. Good. When someone writes a best seller about how to profit by investing in start ups, then perhaps most of the gain potential will have been mined. But until then, I suspect more opportunity exists than is being recognized, and I am placing long positions accordingly. John

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