Hi John, Is there something to salvage from this past week ?
Although I acknowledge that this week has been an economic disaster for all of us, I refuse to say its a complete disaster with no remdeeming value. Heres a couple thoughts:
The market is peering into an abyss, the sector is a basket case this stock has suffered mightily yet its still UP 45.3% in year over year pricing, ranking 4th in the semiconductor sector behind the same three, impx, cube, and supx. With supx rising and cube falling. Thats still darn great returns for this stock. Looking at the flip side, alsc down 84%, oakt down 62%, lsi down 60%, crus down 57%, altr down 47%, siii down 39%, even atml down 16% and intc down 6%! Its clear the winner isn't necessarily the hare in every race.
If you liked xico at 12 or 11, then you should love it a 8 or 7! Hey the story hasn't changed! Time to think about accumulation again. This is like Macy's having a sale. Time to shop!
Looking inside Intel's announcement, they claim they expect flat revenues on declining prices. They've released their August 1st pricing. Their Pentium 166 with 512K cache will decline from 800+ to 650ish. Thats a BIG percentage cut to take, yet still expect flat revenues. Could be they have some tricks up their sleeves. Could be they see volume growth. Could be an orders surprise is coming around the corner. This is a bellwether indicator.
Finally, last week is behind us, right ? Time for regrouping and healing is ahead. The sector bubble has been deflating for six months to a year, and xico has risen throughout when viewed long term. When market sentiment turns as it always does, what will happen ?
Regards, Mike |
