<<China becomes the economic leader in 2008......What will that say to us who invest in the US markets>>
That's a very interesting question.
First, it'll take longer than 2008. They have just begun to develop the ability to produce intellectual property. They will have to have Universities equal to Stanford and Harvard, before they can have companies like Intel and Microsoft. The one begets the other, and they are still probably 20 years away from that level. Having lots of literate disciplined workers will raise a country out of poverty. But to get beyond "middle-class" status, it takes a lot more.
Second, for all the faults of our financial oversight/reporting system, it totally outclasses China's. For that reason alone, I restrict my investing to companies listed on U.S. exchanges, who have to report using our rules. They will improve their standards (and so will we, hopefully), but it's going to be a slow process. Also, all their good companies are getting listed on the NYSE.
Third, it is possible to invest in China, buying the stock of companies whose corporate headquarters may be in California, but whose growth prospects are tied to China. AMAT, QCOM, many others. If you want to invest in China, probably the best strategy for the next decade, is to invest in U.S-listed companies that are targetting China for design/manufacturing/marketting.
This is sort of like the situation that Japanese investors have faced for the last decade. The only decent stock investments, among Japanese companies, are those multinationals like Toyota, whose growth does not depend on the Japanese market, with its aging/ZPG-or-less demographics. |
