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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (17519)1/28/2003 12:34:28 PM
From: diana g  Read Replies (4) of 206180
 
Hi Sharp,
Imo, Everyone in Iraq knows that if war begins, Saddam is toast & probably soon. No one there thinks Saddam's coming out on top if the US attacks. The problem for Iraqis of all stations is making it thru the transition.
--- I agree that my hypothetical Major-in-charge-of-oil-facilities wouldn't want to risk Saddam's ire while Saddam is still in power, but the Major knows that once the shooting starts the clock is ticking for Saddam's power & the new bosses won't look kindly on Saddam loyalists who blew up oil facilities.
--- What's the best play for him under those circumstances?
---I say it's to be on the side of the future.
The Major & guys like him are thinking about the future. They've got families & hopes & dreams. And loyalty to Iraq. (as opposed to Saddam) Very few are really suicidal nuts.
---Of course it's true that we don't know what their particular circumstances are. It could be that Saddam has somehow made it very difficult for them to avoid facility destruction.
---But I think these guys are, in this sense, on the same side as us, in that they are figuring ways to come out post-Saddam with oil facilities intact. It's in their best interest & Iraq's best interest.

We'll see how it works out.

jmvho,
regards,
diana
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