Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Frank Pembleton who started this subject	1/28/2003 7:58:48 PM
From: grusum	Read Replies (3) of 36161

The Gulf War is a poor analogy to predict the price of gold due to the war coming in Iraq. If you remember, there was much uncertainty about how easily we could win the Gulf War. There was little doubt that we would eventually win, but there were many other opinions that the allies would not fare well. The night the war began Dan Rather was on the air in tears. In my opinion they were tears of ‘fear’, not of sadness for the coming war. There was tremendous uncertainty. At the beginning of the war, in a matter of a few hours Iraq’s air defenses were blinded and rendered mostly impotent. It was only then, when it was abundantly clear that the war was going well for the allies, that France hurriedly decided to join in the fight. I think that France was also uncertain how the war would go. The uncertainty that many were feeling was reflected in the run up in the price of gold. When it was apparent that the allies were going to win, the POG dropped. Today the situation is reversed. This time there is much confidence (by the masses) that the war will go well. I think that that confidence is already priced into gold. As everyone on this thread knows, there are many other forces driving the POG other than just ‘war fears’ that the media spoon feeds to the masses every day. POG will drop much less than people expect even after it is apparent that the USA is handily winning the war. But if things even go ‘a little’ awry and victory isn’t as close as we thought, then i think the price of gold will increase and not look back for a while. A quick easy victory in Iraq could see lower oil prices however………… PS all of this is just my opinion and i know i could be wrong, just giving you guys something to think about that i haven’t seen brought up before..

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