From Briefing.com: Updated: 29-Jan-03 - General Commentary - Though techs managed to eke out a modest gain in Tuesday's trading, ending a two-day skid, there wasn't much to get excited about. Easy to make the case looking at light volume totals that rebound had more to do with shorts covering positions ahead of Tuesday night's State of the Union address and today's Fed announcement, than it did with bulls coming off the sidelines and pounding the bid. Fact that indices were technically oversold also contributed to today's snap back rally.
Unfortunately, the underlying fundamental picture hasn't changed much - and we doubt there will be anything in President Bush's speech, or in the Fed announcement, to alter conditions for the better. Consequently, we're left with a sector that still has to work off some of the excesses built up from the Oct-December rally. A rally that was inspired more by technicals and seasonals than by improving fundamentals.
If our assumption is correct, then investors should be looking to use any near-term gains - particularly in areas such as networking, telecom and wireless, where early gains were strongest - to reduce exposure. While we think a retest of the October lows is unlikely, Briefing.com maintains that the downside risk still outweighs the potential for reward.
For all the post-close/pre-open earnings news, see Briefing.com's In Play and/or Economic Calendar pages.
Robert Walberg, Briefing.com
6:07PM Tuesday After Hours price changes vs 4pm ET levels: After staging a respectable rally in the regular session, traders reined in their buying efforts in the after hours session as apprehension surrounding President Bush's State of the Union Address, at 9 ET, set in. Presently, the S&P futures, at 855, are 3 points below fair value, and the Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1000, are also 3 points below fair value.
However, for the most part, tonight's earnings reports were relatively encouraging and some, like chip equipment maker Novellus Systems (NVLS 30.44 +0.91), even showed signs of a slight uptick in end market demand. Specifically, NVLS matched the Multex consensus EPS estimate of $0.11, which excludes certain charges, on revenues of $217.6 million (Multex of $211.6 mln) in its Q4 (Dec) report. On its conference call, NVLS said it saw some firming of business in Q4 that is continuing in Q1. Consequently, NVLS issued Q1 guidance of revenues of $234 mln and EPS of $0.07, which was above the consensus outlook of $204.6 mln and $0.06, respectively. NVLS added that Q1 bookings should be $240 mln and shipments should be up 10% to $210 mln. Related companies include the likes of AMAT, SMTC, and ACLS.
5:09PM Chartered Semi matches estimates (CHRT) 4.25 +0.14: Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.49 per share, in line with the Multex consensus of ($0.49); revenues rose 41.8% year/year to $107.9 mln vs the $105 mln consensus; sees revenues down approximately 5-10% sequentially vs Multex consensus estimate for revs of $97.3 mln.
4:55PM Photon Dynamics exceeds estimates, will exit PCBA inspection mkt (PHTN) 17.55 +1.55: Reports Q1 (Dec) loss ex-items of $0.15 per share, $0.03 better than the Multex consensus of ($0.18); revenues rose 52.8% year/year to $21.7 mln vs the $19.4 mln consensus. Announces it will exit the printed circuit board assembly (PCBA) inspection market.
4:53PM Cymer sees Q1 higher revs (CYMI) 32.07 -0.34: Company sees Q1 (Mar) revenues of $71-74 mln (Multex consensus $63.2 mln).
4:32PM Cymer beats by a penny (CYMI) 32.05 -0.36: Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.11 per share, $0.01 better than the Multex consensus of ($0.12); revenues rose 27.7% year/year to $70.0 mln vs the $65.5 mln consensus.
4:50PM Novellus guides higher for Q1 (NVLS) 29.71 -0.28: -- Update -- On call, says it expects Q1 bookings of $240 mln and shipments to be up 10% to $210 mln... projects revenues of $234 mln (consensus $204.6 mln) and EPS of $0.07 (consensus is profit of $0.06)
4:48PM Novellus not expecting further restructuring (NVLS) 29.71 -0.28: -- Update -- On call, says that if bookings can continue to grow at current rate, it won't need more restructuring... notes that if there is zero growth, more restructuring would be needed... all things considered, CEO said he tends to believe there won't be any more restructuring... separately, says it expects profits to grow from Q4 going forward
4:44PM Novellus says it sees firming of business (NVLS) 29.71 -0.28: -- Update -- On call, says it saw some firming of business in Q4 that is continuing in Q1 and beginning to show more widespread expansion
4:14PM Novellus matches estimates (NVLS) 29.71 -0.28: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.11 per share, in line with the Multex consensus of $0.11; revenues fell 5.6% year/year to $217.6 mln vs the $211.6 mln consensus; deferred revenue at the end of the fourth quarter of 2002 was $130.1 million, a decrease of $26.6 million or 17.0 percent from $156.7 million at the end of the third quarter of 2002.
4:40PM Intersil reports in-line results, issues Q1 guidance (ISIL) 14.94 +0.95: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.18 per share, in line with the Multex consensus of $0.18; revenues were $179.9 mln, vs consensus of $179.4 mln. Expects Q1 EPS of $0.13-$0.14 on $160-$165 in revs, vs consensus of $0.14 and $165.3 mln.
4:07PM Celestica misses by $0.01 (CLS) 14.86 +0.31: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.15 per share, $0.01 worse than the Multex consensus of $0.16; revenues fell 21.9% year/year to $1.91 bln vs the $1.78 bln consensus.
Close Dow +99.49 at 8,089.05, S&P +11.09 at 858.56, Nasdaq +17.05 at 1,342.32: The indices ended up in unison, with the Dow up 1.25%, the Nasdaq 1.29% and the S&P 1.31%...the gains in the Nasdaq and S&P nearly reversed the losses of yesterday, though the Dow fell well short...stocks opened up modestly in response to generally good earnings news ahead of the open, led by Dow 30 stocks Merck (MRK 54.40 +2.64), Procter & Gamble (PG 85 +1.95) and DuPont (DD 38.73 +0.27)...another Dow 30 stock, SBC Communications (SBC 24.32 -0.53) gave disappointing guidance for 2003 in its report...
the morning economic news was about as expected and had little impact, as December Durable Goods New Orders rose 0.2%, a bit below expectations, but New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence were slightly above expectations...the indices hovered a bit on the positive side until mid-day, when a rally started...the driving issue was hope that President Bush's State of the Union address this evening will provide clarity on the Iraq situation...the Dow closed well above the 8,000 level...the Dow Utilities index was up 2.9% even though the bond market was down...
Duke Energy had a good earnings report (DUK 17.10 +0.51) and some of the fears about financial stability for the industry are easing...breadth was good as advancers lead decliners by almost 2-to-1...the Russell 2000 index was up 1.25% as well, reflecting the broad, even gains today...volume was on the light side...DJTA +0.9%, DJUA +2.9%, DOT +1.1%, Nasdaq 100 +1.5%, Russell 2000 +1.2%, SOX +0.9%, S&P Midcap 400 +1.5, XOI +1.9%, NYSE Adv/Dec 2118/1188, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2063/1231
1:07PM Cymer extends slide (CYMI) 31.50 -0.90: -- Technical -- Has recently extended today's breakdown but support at 31.30/31.25 has held thus far. For the very short term, need to see sustained action above resistances at 31.60/31.70 and the 31.95/32 area to help improve the tone. Failure leaves the door open to a solid support at 30.95 which marks the Dec low and the 38% retrace of the Oct/Jan rally.
10:15AM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : -- Technical -- Volatile action for the sector this morning with the index (SOX 280) slipping fractionally below yesterday's low after a favorable start before returning back to unchanged territory. Has attempted to bounce but need to see sustained action above 281 and 285.50 to improve the very short term bias. Failure leaves the door open to further losses with next supports at 275 and the 270/269 area.
10:02AM More on MXIM rumor 31.86 +0.16: We are hearing from Goldman Sachs that the CEO of MXIM cannot make the conference himself, and will try to find a replacement.
9:56AM Rumor that MXIM pulls out of Goldman conference 31.85 +0.15: Hearing that reason given was a scheduling conflict.
9:15AM Ciena rumors of AT&T contract win (CIEN) 5.85: -- Update -- Hearing rumors that Ciena will win a $50 mln AT&T (T) contract for DWDM this spring; these rumors may have been given legs by the UBS upgrade this morning (7:13 comment) in which it is noted that CIEN might see a sequentially higher quarter for AT&T business due to higher CoreDirector purchases.
8:48AM Vitesse Semi upgraded at Pacific Growth (VTSS) 2.08: -- Update -- Pacific Growth upgrades to Equal-Weight from Underweight; firm believes the worst is behind the co, as the diversification of its rev base away from the long-haul telecom mkt to the storage, metro, and enterprise mkts have enabled the co to stem its rev decline and should return it to growth in 2003.
8:44AM Taiwan Semi capex guidance negative for semi equipment group - TWP (TSM) 7.49: -- Update -- Thomas Weisel says that TSM's 2003 capex guidance of $1.0-$1.5 bln is clearly a negative data point for the semi equipment industry (firm's est was $1.35-$1.60 bln).
7:15AM Powerwave estimates cut after earnings (PWAV) 4.38: UBS Warburg reduces its 2003 est to a loss of ($0.11) from $0.14 and rev forecast to $333 mln from $385 mln. Firm also lowers price target to $4.50 from $5.00.
7:13AM Ciena upped to Neutral from Reduce at UBS; target $5.85 (CIEN) 5.85:
finance.yahoo.com
finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+CHRT+CIEN+CLS+CYMI+INTC+ISIL+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+PHTN+PWAV+TER+TSM+TXN+VTSS+XLNX+^IXIC+^NDX+^SPX+^VIX+^VXN+^STI.N+SMH&d=t
RtS |
