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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (28115)1/29/2003 12:38:12 AM
From: AC Flyer  Read Replies (4) of 74559
 
It's starting to look as though I have been conned by the inscrutable trader from the east

Putting aside the issue that Jay doesn't do exactly as he says, I would say that you've been moderately snookered, Mq.

From the universe of all possible futures, I place a moderately high probability on this one:
* Schmidt and Umbach are court-martialed.
* The US attacks Iraq in late February/early March, using a modified Afghanistan strategy of air power, special forces, Army Rangers and Marines on the ground. Methodical capture of real estate in Northern and Southern Iraq will exert increasing pressure on the Iraqi regime while avoiding the military and political dangers of an assault on Baghdad. Under this mounting pressure the Iraqi regime cracks and Saddam Hussein either flees or is capped by a trusted associate.
* Faced with the astounding success of the US strategy, France and Germany declare themselves staunch US allies whose pre-attack comments were misinterpreted.
* A huge relief rally takes the US stock indexes up 30% to 40%. Half or more of these gains are retained at year-end 2003.
* Business capital investment shows marked signs of life in the second half of 2003, prompting a return of economic optimism.
* The final phase of broadband technology implementation takes place in the second half of this decade, with predominantly wireless solutions bringing high speed internet connections to 90% of US homes by 2009.
* The Dow and the Nasdaq both comfortably exceed 20,000 by 2008.
* In 2009 the US finally enters the Bust of 2001 ably (and extensively) predicted by Prechter, Chen and tradermike.
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