Nuclear report on Iraq challenges U.S. rationale
Michael R. Gordon and James Risen The New York Times Wednesday, January 29, 2003
iht.com
WASHINGTON The International Atomic Energy Agency's report that Iraq has not resumed its nuclear program has challenged one of the Bush administration's main arguments for taking military action to topple the Iraqi government.
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When the administration began to outline its case in late summer, it argued that Iraq was trying to rejuvenate its nuclear program, a development that could change the balance of power in the Gulf and significantly heighten the threat to the United States.
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The report that the chief inspectors presented to the Security Council on Monday strengthened the administration's claims that Iraq has failed to actively cooperate with UN disarmament demands - that it has not facilitated interviews with its scientists or resolved significant discrepancies regarding its biological, chemical and missile programs.
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But the report by the atomic energy agency ran counter to repeated administration claims that Iraq has resumed its nuclear efforts.
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"We have to date found no evidence that Iraq has revived its nuclear weapon program since the elimination of the program in the 1990s," Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the agency, told the UN Security Council.
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The agency's assessment has not led the administration to back away from its assertion that Iraq is developing nuclear capability, but it increased the pressure on the United States to disclose more evidence to strengthen its case.
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Secretary of State Colin Powell has suggested that the administration would present more intelligence.
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Officials said it would pertain to Iraq's weapons programs as well as possible terrorist connections, and would most likely be provided next week.
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Intelligence officials have said in recent months that they have found no conclusive evidence of links between Iraq and the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington.
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At the same time, there has been a debate within the intelligence community about possible connections between Iraq and a northern Iraqi Islamic extremist group known as Ansar al-Islam.
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It has been affiliated with Al Qaeda, and some of its Iraqi members trained in Qaeda's camps in Afghanistan. American officials say Iraq may provide Ansar al-Islam with some support, but it does not appear that the group is controlled by Baghdad.
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On Iraq's weapons programs, the CIA has developed a wealth of detail dating from the Gulf War, but much of its most recent information since UN inspectors left Iraq in 1998 is fragmentary and circumstantial.
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It was the administration's allegations about Iraq's nuclear efforts that came under scrutiny on Monday.
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President Bush summed up the case in an October speech.
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"The evidence indicates that Iraq is reconstituting its nuclear weapons program," he said. "Saddam Hussein has held numerous meetings with Iraqi nuclear scientists, a group he calls his 'nuclear mujahidin' - his nuclear holy warriors. Satellite photographs reveal that Iraq is rebuilding facilities at sites that have been part of its nuclear program in the past. Iraq has attempted to purchase high-strength aluminum tubes and other equipment needed for gas centrifuges, which are used to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons." But ElBaradei's report challenges much of this case. It said there were no indications that Iraq could produce weapons-grade nuclear material when its inspectors left in 1998. After his inspectors returned last year they took samples from rivers, canals and lakes, testing for telltale radioisotopes. The agency's inspectors also visited all of the buildings that had been identified through satellite photos as possible sites for working on nuclear arms.
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"No prohibited nuclear activities have been identified during these inspections," he said.
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ElBaradei said his agency had looked into Iraq's attempts to purchase aluminum tubes. While the agency's investigation is still proceeding, he said Iraq had made a plausible claim that the tubes were for making non-nuclear rockets.
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ElBaradei said his inspectors are still looking into allegations that special high explosives and Iraq's efforts to acquire a factory to make magnets were part of a nuclear weapons program. Claims that Iraq has sought to buy uranium, he said, could not be judged because the United States and Britain have not provided enough intelligence.
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He said that documents recently seized from the home of a scientist involve the use of lasers to enrich uranium, but these documents, he said, related to Iraq's nuclear program before 1991. |
