I'm thinking that I don't know enough to prognosticate here. But here goes anyway: We had enough exuberance in November to last for a few months (i.e., put a lid on the market). I think that we'll see a decline in my bearish figures until the war starts, at which time the bearish percent will rise (putting in something of a double top), but not to Monday's level. That will mark a trend change to the upside, but I don't see that trend having nearly the energy that we saw in late 1998. So, I am looking for a slow, meandering upward trend to start around mid or late March.
War fears have petrified lots of money. The drop when the war actually starts will spook some more money, but that weill be temporary. The ensuing slow upward movement will have an end, too, but who can even guess when, or how bad that end will be?
Of course, I could be wrong.:-) |
