For the next bubble, I would look at commodities.
The commodities have been down for a LONG time - ten years or more. There is not much NEW capacity in the commodity area, except for Viet Nam getting into coffee prodcution.
Low commodity prices have discouraged planting, acerage has gone to urban expansion, mine development has ben underfunded, etc.
There is plenty of excess capacity for manufactured products, like cars, computers, etc. Lots of overcapacity in services, except for medical services. Easy to find investment bankers, real estate agents, home contractors, etc.
Newly created money will tend to end up where the shoe pinches- bidding up a limited supply of commodities.
Rising incomes in developing countries, like China, India, South America, will want various commodities. When poor people get some money, they can affrod coffee, chocolate, some gold jewwelry, an electric fan that uses copper in the motor, etc.
The other factor is that with parts of the world becoming more dangerous, some projects won't happen. Lots of new gold mining in Indonesia ten years ago. Today ? think twice about fixed investments in unstable countries... |
