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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Ilaine who wrote (70195)	1/30/2003 8:18:08 AM
From: Sig	Read Replies (2) of 281500

Could Bush back down on invasion and also survive politically? With the proliferation of rogue Nations having WMD's and longe range missiles ( such as N Korea ) other Nations are subject to blackmail. What would have to be done if a Nation launched one nuclear missile as a demonstration into an un-populated area and had a second one targeted on London, Berlin or whatever? The logical response would be for other Nations to destroy his missile and launch facilities within minutes if possible, followed by an immediate decision by the UN and a coalition invasion against an enemy army that may exceed 3 mm people. There would not be available the many months of planning and training and assembly of forces such as in the past, since the enemy could have hidden launch facilities and spare missiles or could rapidly build new ones before the invasion even started. What was the biggest problem preventing the Administration from knowing in advance about the 911 event? The fact there was no effective communication or coordination between the CIA, FBI, INS, local police, or other organizations having indications of what the nature of the attack would be. A comparative defect in mounting a rapid response to a rouge nations threat exists in the lack of training for coalition forces to work together. The present military buildup in the Gulf represents that type of training where forces of various languages must communicate, where radio frequencies must be compatible, where Russian Migs and tanks may be "friendlies" and not attacked by British equipment. To have command center operators who can speak and understand 5 different languages THIS RAPID BUILDUP IN THE GULF CAN BE OF INCREDIBLE VALUE , in addition to having been the only pressure on Saddam strong enough to have any effect on stopping his WMD activities Mr Bush is very persuesive so it is possible that he could explain these factors in a positive way and survive politically if a satisfactory alternative to war is warranted. I doubt that will happen tho. It should be obvious that if Saddam has even one nuclear weapon and launches it he can pretend to have two or more whether he does or not. At which time the French and Germans may wake up to the threats they face from Iraq. Sig

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