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Gold/Mining/Energy : A to Z Junior Mining Research Site

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To: 4figureau who wrote (3017)1/30/2003 12:15:51 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 5423
 
trade gap not responding to lower dollar, as I predicted

the real issue is weakening foreign economies, as I predicted
they are too dependent on the US engine of growth
which isnt anymore

key quote...
"Whatever the change in the dollar, that doesn't lead to a real increase, unless you have stronger growth overseas. ... If anything, we've seen a trend toward weakening," says David Blond, chief economist at Virginia-based MergeGlobal, a freight specialist.

I expect the trade gap to continue to expand even as the dollar declines further

the real lynchpin is Chinese yuan, pegged to dollar
so the dollar decline has had zero impact on Chinese imports
demand has surged on imports
and it will continue to surge as long as yuan is pegged

maybe "Doug AK" has some comments to add to this phenomenon
I believe he is an expert in this arena

/ jim
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