T H U R S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
Stock indexes closed lower on Thursday led by a sharp
decline in large tech stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index
closed lower on Thursday and below December's low crossing
at 1327.19. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Friday that could lead to a test
of the 50% retracement level of the October-November rally
crossing at 1314.96. If this support level gives way, the
62% retracement level crossing at 1266.24 is a potential
target later this year. Momentum indicators are becoming
oversold but remain bearish hinting that additional weakness
is possible. The NASDAQ Composite Index closed down 35.70
points at 1322.36. The March S&P 500 index posted an inside
day with a lower close on Thursday and closed below the 62%
retracement level of last fall's rally crossing at 842.69.
If the decline continues, the 75% retracement level of last
fall's rally crossing at 816.51 is March's next target.
Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
weaker opening when Friday's trading begins. Momentum
indicators are becoming oversold but remain bearish hinting
that additional weakness is possible. The March S&P 500
Index closed down 20.70 points at 840.
The Dow closed sharply lower on Thursday amidst growing take
of war with Iraq. Additional pressure came from today's
economic reports, which showed that fourth-quarter GDP rose
by just 0.7% slowing from the 4% growth rate the previous
three months. The Dow posted a new low close for the week
and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Friday. If the decline continues, the 62%
retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at
7902 is the Dow's next target. If this support level is
broken the 75% retracement level crossing at 7633 is a
potential target later this winter. Momentum indicators are
oversold but remain bearish hinting that additional weakness
is still possible. The Dow closed down 165 points at 7945.
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INTEREST RATES
March bonds closed sharply higher on Thursday due to
weakness in the equity markets, which left Wednesday's key
reversal down unconfirmed. Today's short covering rally and
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to
bullish hinting that another test of November's high
crossing at 112-14 is possible.
The CRB INDEX
The CRB closed higher on Thursday due to strength in grains,
some livestock, precious metals, fiber and energies. The CRB
index is poised to test the October 1997 high crossing at
247.62 possibly on Friday. If this resistance level is
cleared, the May 1997 high crossing at 254.79 is a potential
target later this year. Today's high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. The daily
ADX is bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes below trendline support crossing
near 239.05 would confirm that a top has been posted.
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ENERGY MARKETS
The energy markets closed higher on Thursday as concerns
about U.S. led military action against Iraq continue to
build.
March crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends this
winter's rally. The door is open for a test of weekly
resistance crossing at 35.84 later this winter. Today's
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that additional strength is possible near-term.
Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 31.80 along
with a downturn by the aforementioned momentum indicators
would increase the odds that a short-term top has been
posted.
March heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it tested the
September 2000 high on the weekly March chart crossing at
94.32. If this resistance level were cleared, the door would
be open for a possible test of the January 2000 high
crossing at 100 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI
are diverging but are bullish signaling that additional
gains are possible. Initial support begins with the reaction
low crossing at 86.75. Today's high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to firmer opening on Friday.
March unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday although gains
were somewhat subdued due to light profit taking.
Nevertheless, Wednesday's breakout above weekly resistance crossing at 94.79 has opened the door for a test of the 75%
retracement level of the 2001 decline crossing at 101.05
later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but
are bullish signaling that additional gains are still
possible. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening on Friday.
March Henry Hub natural closed lower on Thursday due to
profit taking after failing to clear last week's high
crossing at 5.75. Closes above 5.75 or below last week's low
crossing at 5.34 are needed to clear up near-term direction
in the market. If this winter's rally continues, a test of
the 62% retracement level of the 2000-01 decline on the
weekly chart crossing at 5.93 is possible later this winter.
Closes below this winter's uptrend line crossing near 5.255
would all but confirm that a top has been posted.
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CURRENCY FUTURES | REAL TIME FOREX
The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday due to short
covering. However, a late-day setback tempered early gains,
which led to a close below the 50% retracement level of the
1992-2001-rally crossing at 99.86. Today's low-range close
leaves the door open for a steady to lower opening on
Friday. The daily ADX is bearish signaling that additional
weakness is possible near-term. If this winter's decline
continues, long-term support crossing at 96.65 is March's
next downside target. Closes above trendline resistance
crossing near 100.52 would signal that a short-term bottom
has been posted.
The March Euro closed lower on Thursday however a short
covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's
losses. Despite today's setback, March remains above weekly
resistance crossing at 107.535. If this winter's rally
continues, weekly resistance crossing at 109.58 is March's
next upside target. The daily ADX (a trend-following
indicator) is bullish signaling that additional strength is
possible near-term. Closes below initial trendline support
crossing near 106.25 would signal that a short-term top has
likely been posted. Today's high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to firmer opening when Friday's trading begins.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Thursday but
near session highs due to a late-day short covering bounce.
Today's low spiked below this winter's uptrend line crossing
near .7365. The high-range close leaves the door open for a
steady to firmer opening on Friday. If the rally continues,
a test weekly resistance crossing at .7525 is possible later
this winter. The daily ADX is bullish signaling that
additional gains into early-February. Closes below today's
low crossing near .7307 would greatly increase the odds that
a short-term top has been posted.
The March Canadian Dollar posted a key reversal down on
Thursday marking a potential double top on the daily chart.
Closes below Tuesday's low at .6495 could trigger a round of
long-liquidation. If this winter's rally continues, the
contract high crossing at .6585 is the next upside target.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning bearish
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday as it spiked
below Monday's low at .8395. Closes below this support level
would open the door for a possible test of the early-January
low crossing at .8312 later this winter. A short covering
bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's losses
leaving the door open for sideways trading on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
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PRECIOUS AND NON-FERROUS METALS
April gold closed higher on Thursday due to weakness in the
equity markets and persistent geopolitical tensions. Today's
rally led to a close above weekly resistance marked by the
March 1997 high crossing at 366. If this winter's rally
continues, the 75% retracement level of the 1996-1999
decline crossing at 377.90 is a potential target later this
winter. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for a
steady to firmer opening on Friday. Closes below trendline
support crossing near 362.50 are needed to confirm that a
top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
and turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be
in or is near.
March silver posted key reversal up on Thursday negating
Wednesday's key reversal down. This week's wild back and
forth action has left many traders battered and confused.
However, March silver is range bound and needs to close
above last Friday's high at 4.95 or below January's low at
4.72 to confirm a breakout of this month's trading range. If
this winter's rally continues, fib resistance crossing at
5.03 is March's next upside target later this winter. The
high-range close leaves the door open for a steady to firmer
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term.
March copper soared above this winter's highs on Thursday
confirming Wednesday's key reversal up. Today's rally was
triggered by fund and speculator buying, which pushed March
above the bottom of last June's gap crossing at 78.60. If
this month's rally continues, the top of this gap crossing
at 79.40 and then last summer's high at 80.70 are potential
targets later this winter. Todays rally turned stochastics
and the RSI bullish again signaling that additional strength
is possible near-term. Closes below the previous reaction
low crossing at 75.50 would confirm that a top has been
posted.
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FOOD & FIBER
March coffee posted an inside day with a higher close due to
short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this
week's losses. While another day or two of consolidation is
possible, this week's breakout below January's uptrend line
has opened the door for a test of the 75% retracement level
of this month's rally crossing at 61.52 later this winter.
Stochastics and RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term.
March cocoa posted an outside day up as it closed higher for
the fourth day in a row on Thursday due to ongoing political
unrest in the Ivory Coast. Today's rally fell short of
testing October's high crossing at 2394. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on
Friday. Closes above October's high at 2394 would open the
door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at
2500, which marks the April 1985 high. Political uncertainty
overrides any technical signals showing up on the charts.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but overbought hinting
that a double top might be forming. Closes below this
winter's uptrend line crossing near 2177 would greatly
increase the odds that a double top has been posted.
March sugar posted an inside day with a lower close on
Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's gains
following the breakout above the upper boundary of this
winter's high crossing at 794. Today's low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. However,
the door remains open for a test of the 62% retracement
level of the 2000-02 decline on the weekly March chart
crossing at 903 later this winter. The daily ADX (a trend-
following indicator) has turned bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible. Rising open interest
confirms that new buying is fueling the recent upside
breakout.
March cotton closed higher on Thursday confirming
yesterday's key reversal up. Today's rally was supported by
strong export sales of 219,200 running bales, which was 10%
above the 4-week average. Today's mid-range close leaves the
door open for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. Closes
above January's high at 52.47 or below the 25% retracement
level of the May-January rally crossing at 49.24 are needed
to clear up near-term direction in the market. Stochastics
and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that additional
strength is possible into early-February.
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GRAINS & SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March corn closed higher on Thursday due to spillover
strength from soybeans. Early weakness was tied to this
morning's disappointing export sales report, which came in
at just 13.3 million bushels. The high-range close leaves
the door open for a steady to firmer opening on Friday as
stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible into early-February.
If March extends its rebound off January's low, minor gap
resistance crossing at 2.40 1/4 and then 2.42 1/4 are
possible targets later this month.
March wheat closed higher due to short covering on Thursday
supported by strength in soybeans. Export sales were dismal
as expected coming in at just 11.8 million bushels.
Increased chances for precip across Kansas and Nebraska this
weekend tempered gains. March wheat remains at a crossroads
and needs to close above last week's high at 3.24 1/4 or
below weekly support crossing at 3.07 1/4 to clear up near-
term direction in the market. Closes below weekly support
crossing at 3.07 1/2 would open the door for a possible test
of psychological support crossing at 3.00 later this winter.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that sideways to
higher prices are possible into early-February.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans closed higher on Thursday following another
solid weekly export sales report. The report showed net
export sales of 25.3 million bushels. Until export demand
begins to drop off later this spring when South America's
crop becomes available on the world market, it will be hard
to sustain a break in prices. Additional support came from
the continued threat of war with Iraq as shipping and
freight rates are going up spurring buyers to extend
coverage. Weather concerns across Argentina appear to be
overrated as extended forecasts are calling for moisture to
move in by the weekend. Today's rally erased a significant
portion of Wednesday's loss and the high-range close leaves
the door open for a steady to firmer opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are still possible into early-
February. From a broader perspective, March beans are range
bound and need to close above 5.85 or below 5.44 to confirm
a breakout of this winter's trading range.
March soybean meal posted a key reversal up on Thursday due
to fund buying triggered by impressive export demand.
Today's sales report showed net sales of 203,300 metric tons
of meal. Today's rally led to a close above the 75%
retracement level of January's decline crossing at 172.30
and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
firmer opening on Friday. The door is still open for a test
of January's high crossing at 176 later this winter.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are still possible into early-
February. From a broader perspective, March meal needs to
close above 176 or below 160.20 to confirm a breakout of
this winter's trading range.
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LIVESTOCK and MEATS
April hogs closed lower on Thursday due to light profit
taking and commercial selling. Weak cutout values and murky
morning direct government cash reports added to market
uncertainty triggering weak longs to jump ship. Technically,
today's setback was not unexpected following Wednesday's
sharp rally. This week's breakout above this month's
downtrend line signals that a short-term low has been
posted. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible into early-February.
April cattle closed slightly lower on Thursday due to profit
taking as it consolidated some of Wednesday's sharp rally.
Losses were limited amidst tightening slaughter-ready
supplies and expectations for $81 cash cattle next week.
Today's high fell short of testing January's high crossing
at 80.15. Closes above this resistance level would renew
this winter's rally and could lead to a test of weekly
resistance crossing at 81.82 later this winter. Today's mid-
range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term.
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I N O N E W S
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E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
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WINNERS
LBH3 Random Length Lumber Mar 2003 273.90 10.00 +3.79
HGM3 Copper Jun 2003 0.7980 0.0275 +3.56
FFY9 Federal Funds 30day Cash 1.260 0.030 +2.44
SMH3 Soybean Meal Mar 2003 172.7 4 +2.37
YIK3 Mini NY Silver May 2003 4.883 0.102 +2.12
SIH4 Silver Mar 2004 4.945 0.096 +1.97
CCH3 Cocoa Mar 2003 2386 45 +1.92
RRH3 Rough Rice Mar 2003 4.345 0.080 +1.88
HOG3 Heating Oil Feb 2003 0.9805 0.0147 +1.51
OH3 Oats Mar 2003 202 3 +1.51
LOSERS
PAM3 Palladium Jun 2003 258.15 -1.295 -4.82
DAM3 BFP Milk Jun 2003 10.80 -0.38 -3.40
SEH3 Sugar #14 Domestic Mar 2003 21.25 -0.58 -2.66
NDH3 NASDAQ 100 Index Mar 2003 987.00 -26.50 -2.61
NQM3 E-Mini NASDAQ 100 Jun 2003 989.50 -26.50 -2.61
SPH4 S&P 500 Mar 2004 858.40 -21.00 -2.45
ESH3 E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 2003 840.00 -20.75 -2.41
DJH3 Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Mar 2003 7900 -174 -2.22
YMH3 Mini Dow Jones $5 Multiplier Mar 2003 7872 -202 -2.22
RY0 Russell 1000 Index Cash 448.23 -10.07 -2.20
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E X T R E M E S T O C K S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
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WINNERS
CBI Chicago Bridge & Iron N.V. 31.38 15.73 +100.51
FLO Flowers Foods 23.20 6.12 +35.83
MADB Madison Bancshares Group 7.5010 1.5110 +25.23
GABC German Amer Bancorp 18.90 3.35 +21.54
AFFX Affymetrix Inc 26.03 4.23 +19.40
MBRS MemberWorks Inc 16.9490 2.3590 +16.17
GMR Genl Maritime 8.82 1.04 +13.37
EL Lauder (Estee) Co 29.89 3.47 +13.13
TRNI Trans-Industries Inc 5.60 0.58 +11.55
STRS Stratus Properties 10.25 1.06 +11.53
LOSERS
TRMD A/S Dampski Torm ADS 7.00 -3.48 -33.21
FLE Fleetwood Enterpr 5.05 -1.96 -27.96
BPRX Bradley Pharmaceuticals 12.81 -3.42 -21.07
ASYT Asyst Technologies 7.47 -1.83 -19.68
AMWD Amer Woodmark 34.69 -7.47 -17.72
GTSI GTSI Corp 9.88 -2.07 -17.32
OIIM O2Micro Intl 8.38 -1.74 -17.19
INFS InFocus Corp 5.98 -1.15 -16.13
ASGN On Assignment 6.15 -1.18 -16.10
FDRY Foundry Networks 8.16 -1.49 -15.44
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