Saudis are screwed any way you look at it
if peace breaks out and Sodomy is exiled to Bali...
then Saudi oil revenues drop drastically, killing their economy, since oil prices will come down, which will destabilize their nation further, which is already unstable
probability: 1%
if no war, but steady pressure on Sodomy, constant threats in the region...
then Saudi revenues continue strong, resentment for US occupation of Prince Sultan remains heightened, Wahabbi recruitment increases, with internal pressure growing by the week against the Royal Criminal Family
prob: 85%
if war breaks out, with unexpected events taking over, numerous civilian casualties, oil fields erupt in flames...
then Saudi revenues rise sharply, but their terminals and pipelines might be targets for Iraqi reprisals, as AlQaeda activity might also engage the Secular Royal Criminal Family, and threats extend to certain heads within the monarchy
prob: 50%
any way you cut it, Saudi is at extreme risk here
with lower priced oil, with same priced oil, with higher priced oil
the biggest loonies running around expect a quick successful war
sort of like a quick confinement of all responsible for the WTC attack
sort of like a quick deployment of vast effective security apparatus at US borders and airports
sort of like a quick subduing of the entire Taliban network of bandits, warlords, cave hideouts, and arms caches
no way, dream on
this conflict will not be resolved quickly or successfully
oil price will hit $40-50 before $20
/ jim |
