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Technology Stocks : Data Dimensions

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To: Pete Mason who wrote (2326)	7/28/1997 1:59:00 PM
From: Greg Hansen	of 4571

Nelson's Consnsus Earnings Estimate database raises their Q2 and current year estimates. On July 8 in post #2063 I reported a disturbing divergence between the current quarter/year earnings projections reported by First Call vs. Nelson's. I received no clarification/explanation from anyone on this thread regarding the numbers I posted at that time. Today I see that Nelson's has increased their estimates significantly. I don't know when this change took place. I only noticed it today. I can only say that it happened some time between July 8 and today. Q2 estimate is $0.11, Q3 estimate is $0.09, and Current year estimate is $0.46. Nelson's estimates are available through the WSRN.COM link. Nelson's also has a pay service for $95 a year. I am not a member so I know nothing else about this other than the numbers being reported through WSRN.COM. A couple of things seem completely wacky here. The Q2 estimate of 0.11 is well above current First Call estimates of 0.07. But the Q3 estimate of 0.09 is way below First Call estimates of 0.17. It has been widely reported (and I think accepted) that Ardes 2K sales will have negligible impact on Q2 revenue due to the 'lag time' referred to by DDIM management during the conference call following Q1 earnings announcement. The 'lag time' refers to the 30-60 days between when a company reviews the starter kit and when they make a decision on whether to buy more. Since Ardes 2K was being reviewed by only a few companies (I think the number was 14) at the time of the last conference call, there was no suggestion from management that direct sales of Ardes 2K would have any great impact on Q2 revenues. At least this is what I got from managements discussion of this during the conference call and I was trying to pay close attention since Ardes 2K sales have been the 'trump card' here for about 6 months or so. Based on this I have continued to roll along here believing that the Q3 numbers were going to be the 'fish or cut bait' numbers for DDIM. Now I see this Nelson estimate that says in essence, 'no, Q2 numbers are going to be great, but Q3 is going to disappoint'. I don't know whether to be afraid of the great Q2 number or encouraged by the crappy Q3 number. I don't know whether either number has the remotest semblance of credibility. I only know the Nelson numbers have changed significantly since I reported them on July 8. Just sign me off as... Confused as Usual.

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