Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch Message Board

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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch

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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (12408)	2/1/2003 2:02:30 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) of 89467

Fourth Quarter GDP - The More You Delve, The Uglier It Gets northerntrust.com <<...The Commerce Department's advance report on 2002:Q4 GDP - and I stress "advance" because key information on inventories and net exports are only educated guesses on the part of Commerce - showed an annualized increase of only 0.7% in price-adjusted terms. This was the slowest quarterly GDP performance since the 0.3% annualized contraction in 2001:Q3, which included the September 11th terrorist attacks. Now, as bad as this past quarter's economic GDP report appears on the surface, it becomes even worse as you drill down into the data. When you do drill down, you see the toll declining household net worth is taking on consumer spending, the toll record state/local government budget deficits are taking on spending, the likely one-off factor accounting for the strength in fourth-quarter business equipment spending, the likely weakening in fourth quarter productivity and corporate profits, and a whiff of stagflation. Moreover, recent weakness in real M2 money growth does not augur well for aggregate demand in the first half of this year...>>

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