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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 337.35

-1.5%

Jan 20 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (8339)	2/1/2003 9:24:11 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) of 95743

>> sure, but what do you do if it doesn't reach 50% Gottfried, Perhaps this will be considered heresy, but I think there may be another 2 factors here. 1- Maybe bullish speculators simply ran out of money before the bpcompq got overbought enough as the previous times that it reached 55%. or 2- Maybe it would have reached 55% this time too, if it was given a couple more days. But the timing of the State of Union speech and other events cut short that process. There were many predictions that the speech would increase the momentum to the war. And therefor the next day the market would sell off. So a lot of people positioned themselves for the event by selling earlier. And co-incidentally, the bp number was just below 50%. So in my opinion the bp indicator is not predictive. If I live long enough to see the return of the bull market, my bet is the bp % will go a lot higher than 55% before it turns down. Sarmad

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