>> but what do you do? BTW bpcompq has been <57 for 4 years
Gottfried, What do I do about the bpcompq ? If I were to do something about bpcompq, my use of it would be that if it reaches recent past highs (~50%) - WITHOUT a visible improvement in economy, bookings, profits, sentiment - then it is a sell signal. Because that means that stocks were bought speculatively, and they've reached too high without fundamental support.
I do not at all believe that stock prices move up ahead of economic improvement in a predictive manner. They move up because they are oversold, and speculation moves them higher. And sometimes, by plain co-incidence, an economic improvement becomes visible while the stocks are high. In which case they keep going up.
If however, the improvement does not show up, then back down they go.
If you were asking what I actually do, don't bother. because it is just as much a failure as anyone else's method. Ask Jacob instead. The man had a vision of continued bear market, and acted on it against the tide. And it is working in his favor. But of course, in my opinion, totally by co-incidence. Hopefully he'll not be offended.
My own largest mistake (stated in terms of bpcompq) is that I buy long before we reach the low levels of ~30%. So I'm always out of cash at the bottom.
Sarmad |
