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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent?

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To: sea_urchin who wrote (17090)2/1/2003 11:32:35 PM
From: Gary H  Read Replies (2) of 82038
 
prudentbear.com


But why does Structured Finance treat sound investment with such utter disdain? Because of volume constraints and, to a lesser extent, yield inadequacies; in contrast to consumption and asset-based lending, there are definite bounds on the amount of sound investment. The more that is financed, the more vulnerable profits and the less sound the underlying Credits. Indeed, business profits provide rather tenuous collateral after Bubbles have passed their peak. It would truly be wonderful if we could today rev up the manufacturing sector and right the system. Beguiling perhaps, but this is not today a viable alternative. The financing of sound investment would prove woefully inadequate in terms of the quantity of Credit required to sustain the U.S. Bubble. Moreover - and a major issue today for the dollar and financial fragility - Structured Finance simply does not have the luxury of turning its back on the Consumption and Asset Bubbles it has so fervently nurtured. For the U.S. Bubble Economy it remains inflate or die. Reckless Japanese Credit inflation was terminated before it was too late. Argentina’s was not.



The inescapable consequences of the U.S. Credit Bubble Dilemma include only more Credit and speculative excess, heightened financial fragility, deeper economic maladjustment and impairment, and a further debasement of our currency. Considering what we have and continue to observe, I do not feel it is at all outrageous to assert that our system has set a perilous course toward the collapse of the world’s reserve currency. This is the harsh reality that we should recognize as a nation as we contemplate Post-Bubble America. And no amount of inflation will change the facts of economic life. There are no available shortcuts but many risky gimmicks to prolong the Bubble, hence only making the inevitable day of reckoning all the more painful and Balkanizing. There is nowadays only louder call for stimulating and “reflating,” but there is absolutely no discussion of the consequences. There is so much a stake. It is our view that the longer we travel down this dangerous course the more rapidly the Post-Bubble America pendulum swings away from a Japanese scenario in the direction of Argentina.
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