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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 229.12

-0.2%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (152330)	2/2/2003 12:35:29 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) of 164684

2 variables, revenue growth and projected earnings, are volatile and relatively unpredictable at this point, requiring a much stiffer risk premium (discount) than anything reflected in Yardeni's estimates as per your post. At this point, optimistic estimates of growth and earnings appear to be collapsing. Cheap oil could turn the tide in favor of a new bull market -- much depends on the US quickly and effectively seizing the Iraqi oil fields and crushing any regional opposition to the US occupation of an Arab country. If oil fields are blown up in Iraq, Kuwait, and/or Saudi Arabia, growth estimates for the US economy will come down, possibly pushing us back into recession.

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