I am sorry, but I don't want the point to missed.
Those correlation charts are from fixed points. If they are moved a few months one way or another, the results change a lot, for shorter time frames. However, The first 32 months of the nasdaq crash had about a 90-93% correlation to the dow from 9/29 on. A lot of regulars here have abandoned the correlation from Oct/Nov forward for reasons that I don't understand,(this is my point), as the correlation has continued very precisely.
From the 9/29 peak to the 7/32 low was 35/36 months. From the 3/00 peak to the Oct 02 low was 31/32 months. The fact that we didn't continue down doesn't mean the correlation ended. I am arguing that we are now correlating with the period from the low in July 32 to the higher low in April 33. I suggested this would happen last Aug...that the low late summare or another low in fall would do it. The shape is even similar... high percentage rally, then slow sell off for several months.
siliconinvestor.com
The completion of this pattern will be a slightly higher low on the nasdaq...1160-1220 fits well, and then a steady but hard rally for years that would peak around 2800 in early 2006.
I suspect this is being tossed aside because the majority here is very bearish and wants well under 1000 on the nasdaq. But a viewing of the 29-33 pattern never said such a thing HAD to occur.
An alternative pattern would be a sell off to 800, but it has to be fast and soon,(we are 35 months into the current pattern), a rally to 1100 plus and then a slow sell off for 6-9 months to around 850 to 900, and then a 3 year blast off to 2500+. No reason this can't occur.
The point is the retrace hasn't been broken at all, so I don't get the bickering |
