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Strategies & Market Trends : Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way
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To: The Philosopher who wrote (376)2/2/2003 8:59:01 PM
From: - with a K  Read Replies (1) of 469
 
Re: KG I don't own it but a fellow NAIC friend's club has it as one of their largest positions and has watched it drop. Ouch. I'm quite puzzled by the ugly chart when you look at it's valuations, balance sheet, and other measurements. Nice margins, too. I wonder if it's snake-bit, which is my scientific term for extremely out of favor. <g>

All I could find is this: SG Cowen lowered its rating on the company, saying the $850 million price tag for the Elan assets was exorbitant.

I have not run a SSG, but your numbers are impressive. I must admit that I'm not all that interested (the chart scares me; what's the catalyst to turn this turkey around?) because I already own PFE and PRX, a generic drug maker that I wrote up here last year. It has done quite well, and I don't need another drug maker.

Even though S&P gives it 5+ Outlook, they rate it a "hold." Hmmmm.

What's going on with this stock???

Here's my Graham FV calculation, which I see is about $11 higher than S&P's.

Company: KG
Date: 2/3/03
2003's expected earnings: $1.65
Estimated percent 7-10 years EPS growth rate: 9
P/E maximum if not 8.5: 11
Graham Fair Value: $33.69
Current Price: $14.68
$ difference: $19.01
Percent Growth to Fair Value: 129.47%
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