Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (27403)	2/4/2003 10:01:10 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (6) of 36161

Frank ["maybe your portfolio hit an all time high but it did it at a much higher risk level..."] BINGO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm glad that someone else finally "get's it" ! You'd think that Websters removed RISK from the "R's" or something ? We had VERY few threadsters here on record for selling into the parabolic Jan to May 2001 run to HUI 140-150 the first time. SOME of those same VERY few; also were in the postion to re-load on the HUI pullback thru last summer sub 95 and this fall to 105-110ish...and just got a 40+ point HUI Silver-Platter "High Reward-Low Risk" trade out of it. Buying that HUI pullback given the collapsing fundamentals of the USD, rising Deficit's and most importantly for the when, not if War with Iraq on the horizon... THAT was THE "trade" of the Cycle so far...other than "exiting" the parabolic Jan to May 2001 ride. We are now in a HIGH RISK - low/moderate Reward environment imho. For those that sold into the Jan-May 2001 parabolic run and rode this most recent "been there-done that" 40+ point HUI run... they've already exited and banked profits equivalent to a buy & hold run thru HUI 180-190...and as you said.... have avoided the ramping RISK bullet here. Much, much more money will be made and RETAINED (keyword & concept there folks) by actively trading/levering the initial Sweet-Spot of the Commodity Cycle's than will ever be made by trying to be the last man standing at the top....ie: the violent collapse from the top of the prior Nat Gas & OSX cycle many of us here saw on the original SI SD along with the lessons that were evidently NOT learned on the HUI collapse off of the last Profit Taking event within this Gold Cycle last May... ie: the 62 HUI point collapse in just 7 weeks; including 35ish points in 5 trading days. Once Big Money decides to take profits in these commodity cycles (prior Nat Gas, OSX cycle & May 2001 HUI sell off) - those still in - get the trap-door pulled...and if you go back and re-read these threads; you'll see that 75-85%+ of threadsters ALL saw these initial pullbacks as re-loading opps and not as the initial wave of a multi-wave collapse. We all have differnet disciplines and trading methodologies...I just think it's a fool's game (proven by history on these very threads) to try to be the last man standing at the top and chasing that elusive once in a lifetime Return that you can tell the Grand-Kids all about... What is most telling is the number of Gold Bulls who are focused on bagging another 1980-81ish $800 Gold & $50 Silver run... speculative-mania returns. ...I guess the recent collapse IPO-iNet, Tech-Telcom Bubble failed to teach anyone any lessons....must be ancient history now in daytrader terms (vbg)? I do NOT think that BIG MONEY is going to hang around too long in any Mania-esque sectors very long for a while...ie: I think we've seen the last-Mania for quite some time...sans a complete JimWilleCB-esque global meltdown into geopolitical armaggedon. I think the next HIGH REWARD-Low/moderate RISK trade is going to be on the longside to the broadmarket once we establish a presence in Iraq...won't last long...but another run thru DOW 9250, maybe even 10,000 is in the cards imho...then we return to the next leg down...and I think we'll get to re-load on Gold/Gold-Silver stocks once again and I think we will see HUI 95-105ish (the only REAL support proven so far) re-tested...and I wouldn't be interested in re-loading again untill those levels are reached. If the GOLD Bull does go "significantly" higher... it's going to continue to be a hard-fought; stair-step, multi-year battle...and only twice in the last 27 years have we broken out of present $350-$380 POG into that $425-$450 upper band...and that's only 20% upside...that's only happened 2 times in the last 27 years folks... A 20% upside that has only occured 2 x in 27 years is - NOT, what I would call the next great opp...certainly NOT - a HIGH REWARD-LOW RISK event. Put greed & emotion in your back pocket and start trading smart people... ... just my .02 I like Big EARLY Cycle moves to be securely in the Bank...because more often than not, that often turns out to be all there was folks...or, at best vis a vie the prior SI SD OSX Cycle... we get a double top trading opp (which we may have just had in the HUI... so far anyway (VBG).

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