Hi Ben,
It is certainly OK to disagree with me. I believe that I agree with you that news reports are appearing that imply some decisons are being made at the company level that reflect strong preferences and headstarts.
I meant my comment to mean that so long as China Telecom can proceed unofficially, using some form of CDMA, like WLL or 1X in 450 MHz spectrum that is defined as 2.75 in MII's perspecpective, then MII can wait to announce official 3G decisions.
Whether it is in MII's best interest to dictate decisions, I do not know, but I doubt it, believing as Ramsey says, that China will let competitive market forces decide. However, they might be willing to place a side-bet of UMTS. I also believe that it is in their best interest to conceal their hand now. They must be sure, like Korea, that they can play in a worldwide market. Their technology will blaze across the sky like a giant red star in the forseeable future.
If MII has made the decision already, not just China Telecom, which also would be a huge win in itself, I believe that this would mean that CDMA2000 and its offshoots have demonstrated such excellence in trial networks within China that they undoubtedly posess and have demonstrated great intrinsic value.
What is key, in my opinion, is the delta in intrinsic value between CDMA2000 (as augmented by DO and multimode world phones) and UMTS (including UMTS worldphones with Qualcomm MSMs), in determining whether Qualcomm can tip the market to a CDMA2000 de facto standard rather than to a harmonized standard de facto standard.
After the change of Ministers, perhaps, thing will become more clear.
As I said, this is mere speculation on my part. Everyone is free to speculate. Everyone else, to disagree.
As an investor, I certainly would like to believe that this decision has been made In China, because it is such a major one in Qualcomm's favor. I simply am less confident of it than you seem to be. I will read or re-read your citations as soon as I can find some time. Perhaps, they will change my mind.
Thanks for your comment. I hope this helps, and, I can stop putting the horse in front of my own cart.
Don |
