Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (28416)	2/4/2003 3:27:05 PM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Ray, >>Every developed country in the world is trending toward below replacement rate fertility.<< This is simply incorrect. The U.S. is the outlier to this trend. I doubt it. The U.S. probably has at least a half dozen major distinct population groups, so treating it as a single statistical entity will be misleading. It is almost certain that the trend in fertility is down in all of these populations, but whether some or all have, or will reach non-replacement fertility levels is a question for the future. The non-replacement level has not proved to be a support level in Italy, for example. Regards, Don

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