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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Paul Senior who wrote (16350)2/4/2003 4:58:28 PM
From: Bob Rudd  Read Replies (1) of 78512
 
Paul: I'd agree with your observation that the Porter perspective is far more useful helping the investor see problems, issues and limitations than it is for seeing the positives. I tend to agree with Charles Ellis that investing is a 'loser's game' by which he means that winning the 'game' is all about avoiding big losers [Clearly my experience hasn't lived up to that ideal, having had my share of clunckers...but I fault errors rather than aspirations for that].
I tend to look at companies that are having problems where the price has taken a big hit. A key issue is whether the problem is temporary and fixable or the price drop is only partial recognition of an UGLY NEW REALITY...a secular change in the business' prospects going forward. Often such changes revolve around competitive issues and that's where the Porter perspective is helpful. I include 2 additional 'forces' - legal/regulatory and the health of complementors [enabling factors such as the sales of hotdogs would be to a mustard vendor]. I often do this analysis after an initial 'ready, fire, aim' buy based on a quick initial look.
Today I looked at AGII, but decided to pass: messages.yahoo.com
I continue to see in house financing as a key competitive advantage for CMH. Tough times may soon put some Wall Street folks in the market for those trailers.
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