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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (16035)2/4/2003 6:57:00 PM
From: Alex MG  Read Replies (3) of 19219
 
"my problem" is that I am more balanced than the permabears on SI.

I think you are just "hoping" and "wishing" that the bear market is over, you are trying to be optimistic. But if you look at the cold hard facts the odds are very strong we will see lower lows.

Just looking at historical valuations should tell you we aren't at bottom yet. Of course if there were reasonable prospects for some V-shaped growth from these levels then an argument could be made for the bottom being in. But what have we just heard in the last few days?? The same thing we hear every earnings season.

AMAT, INTC, ALA, etc etc, and now CSCO. All warning of no growth or flat at best going forward. Yeah, many companies have been beating their dumbed-down estimates due to cost-cutting. But, going forward, where's the beef??... Do you really want to buy no-growth stocks at 40-50 times foward earnings?? Not to mention all the bogus pro-forma BS that is still being used. So in fact many of these so-called growth companies have no REAL earnings going forward.

Maybe you're listening to too much Kudlow & Cramer, or are you following da chaff? who's been calling for DOW 16,000 for about 3 years now I guess.
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