The "splash" that occurs in these launch videos is intriguing, in my opinion. As the object approaches the shuttle it is relatively small and apparently opaque. After it strikes the wing it seems to burst or splash as though either the debris object is being destroyed or tiles are shattering or as H-Man suggests, both may be happening at once.
Assuming that this foam or ice or whatever could have indeed damaged the tiles, possible scenarios are considered. The materials in which make up the shuttle are quite fragile. The ceramic outer coating is thin and brittle. The inner substance is chalky. So an object with reasonable weight striking a group of tiles could quite easily destroy their integrity.
The complete tiles themselves could remain attached to the shuttle. . . so no "tiles missing" sort of sensors would indicate a problem. However, considering the heat that occurs upon re-entry, a tile need only be gouged for it to lose integrity and fail.
This theoretical left wing group of damaged tiles could have held together throughout the mission, until re-entry. . . which takes a half an orbit to complete. As the heat increases, the metal in which the damaged tiles are protecting could then begin to heat up.
As the metal wing heats up, the glue which holds the tiles to the shuttle would break down. This could result in a loss of tiles in the damaged area. Tiles could theoretically have falling off of the shuttle over the Pacific Ocean, California, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico. The more tiles that fall, the more exposed the wing is to the 1500-2800 degree (or so) heat. This would cause a rapid rise in temperature within the fuselage, like the one that was detected.
Additional drag would occur, requiring the autopilot to make unusual adjustments. Eventually, the wing structure would simply fail. As the wing breaks apart, the shuttle begins to roll or yaw out of control, breaking into pieces as it tumbles. All of this happening in a very short time. . . perhaps even too short a time for any "proposed escape pod" to be used (not to mention the amount of heat this "proposed escape pod" would suddenly be subject to withstanding).
This is a Monday morning quarterback scenario. Undoubtedly, there are many other technical considerations that will come into play in the investigation. . . as it unfolds.
Watching the splash on the video, I cannot help but doubt that what is striking the wing is foam.
Rande Is |
