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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: GraceZ who wrote (218840)2/4/2003 11:46:24 PM
From: Israel  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
ya still dont get it do you??

Anyone can look at quarterly report and get any or all of the information you are looking for.. Plug it into a little Excel work sheet, throw some random growth % into the mix and come up with a projection... Which means absolutely NOTHING! If you chose to waste your time in this manner, perhaps I'd be a good idea to look for a job on the street, and rate EXPE a super-duper strong buy based on your 'projections'..

my argument was that i was short EXPE based on three factors:

Message 18219017

1)Earnings cannot continue to accelerate at the current rate. (for one, based on weakening economic and industry conditions)

2)Barriers to entry to this business are not unlimited and therefore much like any growth sector, it will experience heavy competition in the near future. Namely orbitz.com

3)The stock trading at 9 times sales and 33 times next years projected earnings (minus charges of course, if one were to factor out charges the PE would jump to over 100), is priced for perfection. This is nothing but a travel agency with a $4.5 billion dollar market cap.

so far, announcements by companies in the same space as EXPE, (ROOM and Sabre Holding to name a few) have proved me right, regardless of whatever excel worksheets projections me, you or anyone else can come up with, this stock is still a pig..

Israel
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