Commodities - The Coming Bull Market Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market

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To: NOW who wrote (1504)	2/5/2003 10:04:15 AM
From: Robert Douglas	of 1643

Is copper signalling an economic recovery? Worldwide copper consumption rose slightly in 2002 after a 6% decline in 2001. Most of the 2002 rise came from Asia. So, no, I would not say that increased demand in the West is pushing the price up. What is causing it? 1) The dollar. Denominated in other currencies, copper is not much off its lows. 2)Production cutbacks. I think about 700,000 metric tons have been idled. (Do you have numbers on this Stephen?) With the idled production copper was possibly in a small deficit last year. When the economy picks up, this capacity will come back on stream keeping a lid on prices for a while although I expect copper will be higher by then. It will get really interesting after the West gets out of recession and demand picks up.

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