MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: Alex MG who wrote (16069)	2/5/2003 12:21:22 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) of 19219

That could be determined, statistically. I'd say the odds are similar. Probably about 10-1. >we weren't supposed to have three down years in a row in the markets, surely we can't have a fourth???... < The odds of 3 down years in a row are much better than 4 in a row, no doubt. Probably between 3-1 & 4-1. So the bears beat the odds on that one. And, sure they COULD beat the odds again. I'm just saying that probability is actually quite LOW. Not HIGH, as you are suggesting. I don't think we have a large enough sample of 11+ rate cuts to figure any probabilities on that- I think it has only happened once or twice.

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