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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (16084)2/5/2003 1:46:13 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
>>WHY are statistics based on past bear market lengths useless?? <<

Sample space is too small and the underlying independent variables too high in number.

Statistical methods have a great deal of applicability when applied to analyzing data for phenomena that have

1) a large number of observations

and

2) only a few important underlying independent variables.

Stock market prices simply don't fit this ticket. Sorry.
Don't have to be an Einstein to know this.

There is a branch of economics called econometrics that postulates you can separate out a whole bunch dependencies if you know most of the independent variables and include a few more to take up the slack -- it's BS that has confounded the practice of economics and set it back many years.
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