l'd re: ["Sinclair has been advocating to start unloading around 410 or so and around 390 we should start seeing some futures liquidations..."]
Sinclair has his eye on the wrong ball then...the Gold Stocks presently are in a disconnect to the Price of Gold.
If you own Bullion, watch stocks; but trade on Bullion TA/FA/Sentiment...if you own Gold STOCKS - watch Bullion, but trade the Gold Socks on the "GOLD STOCK'S" TA/FA/Sentiment - not bullion's.
Often they run together,but quite often they do not...it's fundamental NOT to trade the stocks off of the commodity consistantly, because you have 2 completely different sets of traders/markets & continual disconnect volatility.
We ALL should have learned that in the last OILPATCH Cycle !!!! - if you waited to take profits in the last Oilpatch Cycle untill the underlying commodities started to roll over - you got killed in the stocks before they did...you MUST - ANTICIPATE and not REACT at market peaks...simply too much volatility in these cyclical commodity plays.
Even here of late, $30 Crude & $5+ Nat Gas and OSX 80ish = an obvious complete & total disconnect; as it should be for a multitude of obvious reasons.
And do you really be thinking we ought to be following ole' Mr. Sinclair's upside targets given his rather obvious Pom-Pom Waving Conflict of Interest here ? - anyone remember Matt Simmons call for a "this time it's different" - new paradigm, multi-year/decade+ long - NEW ALLTIME HIGH Oilpatch Bull that he was calling into the last cyclical double top - commodity play this thread was involved in ?
...can I say Deja-Vu - All over again, without be redundant (vbg) ?
Today should be a wake up call for the "Deer in Sinclair-Headlight Bulls (*TM)" given that the odds of us going into Iraq just ramped to where Harrah's has probably taken the bet off the board and Gold & the HUI tanked !
The Pom-Pom Wavers primary mistake here is looking a "Gift Horse" Index 3.5 bagger in the mouth & wanting more, more, more and having visions of 1980-81 Speculative Bubble Sugar-Plums dancing in their heads ...AND failing to see a simplistic/fundamental War-Hedge for what it was.
Way, Way TOOOOOOOOOOoooooooo much talk here of speculative upside. Very little concern/respect, or FEAR - for Smart Money's proven profit taking/exit volatility - ie: last June/July's 60+ point HUI correction in 7 weeks - with 35ish points occuring in just 5 days.
Given Gold has only broken out to that $425-$450 Range 2 x in the last 27 years...and given that's only 10-15% upside from here...ever more reason to ANTICIPATE and not just REACT.
And given how "Speculators" have been treated of late in Post iNet-IPO-Tech/Telcom Bubbleland...I kind of think this market is NOT exactly ready for it's next speculative mania quite just yet...
And if you EVER again doubt the value/accuracy of the SI SD sentiment (food-fight) meter...wander (and wonder (VBG) on over to the Gold Price Monitor ... the Food Fight's in Full Bloom over there too... they were Bears at the Bottom, now Bulls at the Top...and the "Clowns" who missed most of the move as well - are now the Big Bad Bears... whodathunkit ?
MeThinks they ought to re-name the GPM thread to "Clowns II" or rather, "Clowns Too" ~
;)
ciao~ |
